By Lefei Chen, Junior Project Manager - Academic Relations
“Remote sensors and safety devices, combined with Artificial Intelligence (AI), can be particularly useful for mobility recording and falls prevention/detection. Motion capture and wearable tracking technologies can provide older people with security while at home, and the freedom to move outside their home. ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) and ‘smart homes’ can also provide information and alerts, relieving pressure on caregivers while supporting their caring work […]” [1]
Continuously rising life expectancies, coupled with ever-declining fertility rates, are accelerating the aging of the global population, leading the United Nations (UN) to project that one in six people in the world will be aged 65 years or over by 2050 (2019). This demographic change poses great challenges to individuals, families, public welfare systems, and societies across the globe, especially in Asia and Europe. In Europe, 34 countries claim to have more than 10% of their population aged 65+ (Statista, 2019) with the dependency ratio expected to double from 25% in 2010 to 50% in 2050. (UN World Population Prospects, 2019)
In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore are predicted to account for more than one-third of the global population aged 65+ in 2050. The situation in China is even more acute, as it not only possesses world’s largest aged population with 177 million people (accounting for 12.6% of the total population, exceeding the threshold of 7%), but this number is also expected to surge to 330 million by 2030 [2]. It therefore comes as no surprise that China's elderly care market reached a stunning RMB 6.91 trillion (approximately USD 1 trillion) in 2019 and is expected to reach RMB 10.29 trillion (approx. USD 1.6 trillion) in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 11.9% [3].
Source: PRB, Countries With the Oldest Populations in the World, retrieved from United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2019, https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/, and Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Kaitlyn Patierno, 2019 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019).
In order to address this issue, Shanghai therefore took the lead in proposing the "9073" elderly care service model during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, which suggested that 90% of the elderly would live at home and be supported by families and social initiatives, 7% of the elderly could receive community support by government welfare policies, and 3% of the aging population would live in care institutions. This model resembled the “aging in place” model in the US and many other countries, where the use of assistive technology has become imperative [4]. Likewise, the Chinese government also employs [5] technological innovation as the predominate driving force and strategic support to actively respond to the aging of the population, encouraging the development and use of intelligent robots to reduce the strain caused by nursing staff shortages [6]. Correspondingly, the tech industry also expanded its activities into smart robots after identifying the enormous opportunities provided by assistive technology in care settings.
Types of assistive robotics for the elderly
Currently, assistive robotics for the elderly can generally be divided into two categories: rehabilitation robots – sometimes also referred to as assistive robotic devices – and assistive social robots, which in turn can be further subdivided into functional/service type- and affective/companion type assistive social robots [7].
Rehabilitation robots, such as smart wheelchairs, artificial limbs, and exoskeletons, are mainly assistive robotic machines that are not primarily communicative and lack the ability to socialize with people. Conversely, social robots can be perceived as social entities that communicate with the user. Under this category, functional robots – also called service robots – can support various daily living activities of the elderly, such as eating, bathing, toileting, and getting dressed. Some robots also provide assistance to nursing staff to reduce their workload. Affective robots on the other hand are pet-like companionship robots that provide emotional communication to the elderly – particularly empty-nest elderly – to partially meet their psychological needs. In addition, they can also assume certain health and life assistant responsibilities, such as medication reminders, smart home, etc. However, not all robots can be strictly categorized within one of these two groups. Some robots can perform mixed functions according to requests.
Policy support
Recognizing their significant potential, the care robotics industry has received ample policy support. For example, in order to address the expected shortage of caregivers, the central government, as well as numerous local governments, such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin, to name a few, released the “National Service Robot Technology Developing Plan in the Thirteenth Five-year” in 2016, as well as proposed a series of plans that conferred surgical-, cleaning- and medical robots with a leading position in supporting the elderly [8]. Moreover, in 2017, the "Three-year Action Plan to Promote the Development of the New Generation of Artificial Intelligence Industry (2018-2020)" proposed the mass production and application of intelligent home service robots and intelligent public service robots by 2020, as well as advocated for the rapid development, prototyping and implementation of robots for medical rehabilitation and elderly and disabled care. Thanks to the efforts by Chinese companies and research institutes, the service robot sector appears to be growing more rapidly than other robotics industry sectors.
China’s robotics ecosystem
The ecosystem of China’s robotics industry features several prominent research institutes, as well as numerous manufacturers. One of China’s leading service robot research institutes is the State Key Laboratory of Robotics and System at HIT, which develops fundamental technologies that can be used throughout China’s service robotics industry [9]. Its research directions for service robots include structure design and optimization, propulsion and control methods, and components such as sensors and controllers. The lab also conducts cutting-edge research into technologies for human-machine interaction, and remote and network controls. Leading manufacturers of China’s service robots on the other hand include Shenyang Siasun [10] – one of China’s most established robotics companies. In addition to traditional robotics industry firms and research institutions, Chinese Internet and information technology enterprises are also increasingly active in the service robot sector. Large Internet companies such as Baidu, Alibaba Group, JD.com, Lenovo, and LeEco are all investing in robotics startups or internal projects spanning a full spectrum of service robot applications. These firms have advantages in terms of AI, cloud computing, and big data resources that give them an edge in developing autonomous devices.
According to Ageclub – China's first domestic industry platform focusing on business innovation and venture capital incubation in the elderly industry – the elderly care robotics industry started to grow in 2015. Many researchers and entrepreneurs who have relevant R&D experience abroad and close relations with major research institutions have joined this industry, which laid the technical foundation for the development of Chinese domestic robots. Currently, there are 72 companies operating on elderly care robots, with most of them focusing on medical equipment that supports the physical rehabilitation of semi-disabled patients. This is due to the successful precedents of foreign rehabilitation robot companies and the huge domestic market for rehabilitation machines and equipment. Having seen the successful investment stories abroad, investors in China also bid high in this field. 22 companies have received Pre-A and Series-A financing, especially during 2017-2019, thereby resulting in a record amount of funding for this sector. Moreover, there are currently several companies that specialize in service- and companion type assistive social robots, as well as 5 large-scale robot companies, such as Siasun, which are developing a wide range of multifunctional elderly robot products. [11]
Opportunities for Swiss robotics
Robotics has been a national research priority of the Swiss National Research Foundation since 2010. In this context, the Swiss technical institutes ETH Zurich and EPFL in particular have generated numerous cutting-edge robotic innovations and constitute a key talent pool for many Swiss robotics startups, as well as multinational tech giants, such as Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook [12]. In the niche market of robotics for elderly care, Switzerland already boasts 25 leading startups that specialize in nearly every specific segment of smart elderly care, including digital health engagement and health risk quantification, pipetting platforms, assistive robots for humans and custom original equipment manufacturers (OEM) services to the life science and clinical diagnostics communities, to name a few [13]. Among them, F&P Personal Robotics, which has ties to the AI lab at Zurich University and the Bio-Inspired Robotics Lab at ETH Zurich, for example already set up its own subsidiary in China. Moreover, its product, “Lio”, which can communicate with people, entertain them, and support healthcare professionals in their daily tasks, as well as reduce infections, has not only been successfully applied in 6 health care institutions in Germany and Switzerland, but also proved to perfectly fit the need of nursing homes and care facilities in China.
Source: NCCR Robotics
Conclusion and outlook
Driven by increasing life expectancies and decreasing fertility rates, China’s elderly population is projected to reach 330 million people by 2030, thereby underlining the great potential of elderly care robotics to help relieve the increasing pressure on caregivers. Coupled with strong government support, increasing investments, and the expansions of its domestic IT and robotics ecosystem, this sector is therefore expected to grow exponentially in the coming decades. In this context, Switzerland’s strong R&D ability and comprehensive ecosystem when partnering with Chinese counterparts therefore appears to be well-equipped to capitalize on the available opportunities of this niche market, and it is believed that as robotics products prove to be more helpful, smart, and autonomous in improving people’s life, this will also result in a high public acceptance in China.
[1] Ala, S., Toshio, N., & Deidre, W. (2020). The Future of Robots in a Super-Aged Society. Annals of Robotics and Automation, 018–021. https://doi.org/10.17352/ara.000005
[2] Ageing | Health at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2020 : Measuring Progress Towards Universal Health Coverage | OECD iLibrary. (n.d.). Retrieved 26 July 2021, from https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/1ad1c42a-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/1ad1c42a-en
[3] 养老产业发展规模将超10万亿 多家上市公司布局 The scale of development of the elderly care industry will exceed 10 trillion, and more than one listed company will deploy--新华网. (n.d.). Xinhuanet.com Retrieved 28 July 2021, from http://www.xinhuanet.com/2021-03/10/c_1127192066.htm
[4] National Institute on Aging (NIA) (2017) Aging in Place: Growing Older at Home. National Institutes of Health, USA. Link: https://bit.ly/3l10dk6
[5] See for example: National Medium and Long-term Plan for Active Response to Population Aging, 2019
[6] Xinhua News Agency. (2019, November 21). The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the State to Actively Respond to Population Aging" Chinese Government Website. The Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2019-11/21/content_5454347.htm
[7] Broekens, J., Heerink, M., & Rosendal, H. (2009). Assistive social robots in elderly care: A review. Gerontechnology, 8(2), 94–103. https://doi.org/10.4017/gt.2009.08.02.002.00
[8] Sifeng, Z., Min, T., Zehao, Z., & Zhao, Y. (2016). Capturing the opportunity in developing intelligent elderly care robots in China challenges, opportunities, and development strategy. 2016 IEEE Workshop on Advanced Robotics and Its Social Impacts (ARSO), 61–66. https://doi.org/10.1109/ARSO.2016.7736257
[9] 9 “给力高交会开启机器人家居新时代” [The Awesomeness of iRobot Will Start a New Era for Robotic Households], China Finance 中国财经, November 18, 2011, accessed September 29, 2016, http://finance.china.com.cn/roll/20111118/262674.shtml.
[10] Shenyang Siasun is a market-listed high technology company administratively subordinate to the CAS. The company specializes in robotics technology, particularly digital smart manufacturing equipment. It advertises one of the world’s most complete robot product lines and claims to be China’s largest robot industrialization base.
[11] 未来，我们将与养老机器人为伍 In the future, we will be in the companion of elderly care robots_湃客_澎湃新闻-The Paper. (n.d.). Retrieved 28 July 2021, from https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_4966309
[12] Robotics. (n.d.). Greater Zurich Area. Retrieved 28 July 2021, from https://www.greaterzuricharea.com/en/robotics
[13] Swiss Robotics Ecosystem. (n.d.). NCCR Robotics. Retrieved 28 July 2021, from https://nccr-robotics.ch/knowledge-and-tech-transfer/swiss-robotics/